菠菜导航网摘要 2010年1月22日，国务院办公厅正式印发《国务院办公厅关于成立国家能源委员会的通知》，成立以温家宝总理为首的国家能源委员会中国的能源安全和能源发展问题被进一步提上重要议程。随着中国经济的快速发展，中国对石油的需求呈现出快速增长的势头，但受国情制约，目前国内原油产量已无法满足国内市场需求。石油需求持续增长与石油进口不稳定之间的矛盾，已成为我国国家能源进口面临的重大安全挑战。因此，全面深入分析我国石油进口中存在的不稳定因素，有助于合理化解我国能源安全面临的尴尬局面，这也是本文的目的。本文主要从以下几个方面分为四章。第一章从供需角度分析了国内外两个石油市场。分析认为，虽然国际石油市场供需基本平衡，供给略大于需求，但世界石油市场竞争激烈引发的政治、军事、外交矛盾冲突，使国际石油贸易不畅。能否从国际市场获得充足的石油供应严重制约着中国的能源安全。第二章从价格、产地、运输等方面分析了石油进口面临的安全因素。分析认为，中国在国际市场油价的决定机制中缺乏话语权；中国主要原油进口来源地政局复杂，易引发战争；陆海能源运输通道极易受到战争、地区冲突、恐怖活动、海盗和有组织犯罪等各种安全因素的威胁；国内船队运力不足，过度依赖国际油轮，大大降低了我国石油运输的安全系数。

所有这些都是中国石油进口面临的不安全因素。第三章从基本形态和安全形势两个方面分析“马六甲困境”。分析认为，中国石油进口运输依赖马六甲海峡，海盗、恐怖袭击、海上事故等事件将对中国石油进口安全产生一定影响。主要大国对马六甲海峡实施军事禁运和封锁的真正可能性非常渺茫；即使发生战争，不安全的运输通道也不能局限于马六甲海峡。因此，在一定程度上确实存在“马六甲困境”，但影响有限。第四章从市场和国力的角度分析了如何化解石油进口风险。分析认为，当前形势下，应对我国石油进口安全面临的各种挑战，按照自由市场原则，从供需角度实施多元化经营，加强国际合作，提高石油储备是改善中国面临的国际石油市场环境的首要战略。选择。通过进一步加强改革开放中国石油的贸易战略，逐步增强海军防御实力，是最终化解石油进口风险、维护我国能源安全的根本保障。关键词：石油进口安全；马六甲海峡；供需关系；综合国力 摘要 2010年1月22日，国务院办公厅正式发布《关于成立国务院主办的国家能源委员会的通知》，宣布成立温总理主持的国家能源委员会。 这些措施意味着能源安全和发展等各项问题在中国政府政治议程中的重要地位。近年来，随着中国经济的蓬勃发展，对石油的需求也大大增加。然而，国内原油产量难以满足这一需求，石油需求不断增长与石油进口不稳定的矛盾成为中国石油进口面临的最突出挑战。因此中国石油的贸易战略，笔者撰写本文旨在综合分析石油进口中的各种不稳定因素，力求最终帮助解决我国能源安全的困境。以此为核心内容，本文分为四个部分： 第一章从供需两方面考察国内外石油市场。在分析的基础上，本章发现石油的供给量略大于需求量。与此同时，世界石油市场的激烈竞争也引发了诸多政治、军事和外交冲突，进而阻碍了国际石油贸易的发展。因此，中国的能源安全很大程度上取决于能否从国际市场获得足够的石油。第二章从价格、产地、运输等方面分析了石油进口的各种安全因素。在这一章中，作者发现了一个严肃的事实。一是中国在国际价格决策体系中没有足够的特权和权力；第二，中国进口石油的石油来源地，一般是政治非常复杂不稳定的国家和地区，容易受到各种冲突的影响；三是海陆运输通道易受各种战争、地区冲突、恐怖活动、海盗和有组织犯罪等影响。最后，中国船队能力不足，过度依赖国际油轮，大大降低了中国石油运输的安全指数。这些因素都给中国石油进口带来了严峻的安全挑战。第三章从基本形态和安全形势的角度审视马六甲海峡面临的困境。本章从假设中国通过马六甲海峡获得大部分石油进口，从而使中国的石油进口安全受到海盗、恐怖主义和海上事故的影响。如今，大国采取的军事禁运和封锁措施并没有产生应有的效果。此外，不安全的运输范围将扩大到马六甲海峡以外，共同产生了马六甲海峡对石油贸易影响相对较小的困境。上一章试图从市场和国力的角度制定降低石油进口风险的措施。当前，我们需要采取切实措施，按照自由市场供需原则实施多元化发展，加强国际合作，增加石油储备，以应对中国石油进口面临的各种挑战。只有通过这些行动，才能大大改善围绕中国的国际石油市场环境。同时，逐步推进开放改革进程中国石油的贸易战略，加强海上国防建设，是规避石油进口风险、维护中国能源安全的基本保障。关键词：石油进口安全；马六甲海峡；供需关系；综合国力目录介绍························································································································· ···························································································································································· · ······································································································ ···1 一、选题背景及研究意义･･････････ 1 二、文献回顾与研究现状    ············· ······································································································ ················· 2 三、 创新和研究方法······················· ······································································································ ········4第一章中国石油供应分析·································· ·······················5 一、 石油供应市场分析··················· ······································································································ ··········5（一），国内石油供应分析･･････････ ································ 5(二），国际石油供应分析···· ······································································································ ·························· 6 二、 分析o f各国石油战略··················································································································· ······································································································ ······································································································································································································································································································ · ······································································································ ······································································································· ···········································································································································8(< @二），产油国分析·········································································································································· ·························· 9 三、 章节摘要··················································································· ······································································································ ······································································································· ······································································································ · 9 第二章 中国石油进口安全分析··························································································································· ······································10 一、油价安全分析･･ ････････････････････････････10（一），从供应方面的角度分析…······· ······································································································ ············· ············ 11(二），需求侧分析························· ·································· 12 二、石油产地安全分析······ ······································································································ ················･･･13（一），油-exporting国家自身因素･･･････14（<@@@@@@ 二），石油进口国的战略竞争考虑……······································ ······································································································ ··· 15 三、石油运输安全分析····································· ································································································································································································································································17(一）@ >、油路运输安全分析·············································································································································· · 17(二）中国石油的贸易战略，石油运输安全分析···································· ················E爱概括 ························· ························ ････････···· 19 第三章如何理解“马六甲困境”·························· ······ ······································································································· ·················21一、 马六甲海峡基本情况分析...·················································· ······································································································ ·········21（一）中国石油的贸易战略，表面原因分析･････････････････････ ･････････････････････ ･ ･ ·········································································································································································································································································································21 ······································································································ ············································

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